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What the markets expect
Aleksandra Goryachkina 99%
Next is Anna Muzychuk at 99%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Aleksandra Goryachkina99%99%92¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askAleksandra Goryachkina99%Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Aleksandra Goryachkina
99%
99%
92¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Aleksandra Goryachkina
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aleksandra Goryachkina
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- Volume
- $421
Anna Muzychuk99%99%92¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askAnna Muzychuk99%Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Anna Muzychuk
99%
99%
92¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Anna Muzychuk
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anna Muzychuk
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- Volume
- $1K
Ju Wenjun99%99%96¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askJu Wenjun99%Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Ju Wenjun
99%
99%
96¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Ju Wenjun
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ju Wenjun
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
- Volume
- $205
Lei Tingjie99%99%96¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askLei Tingjie99%Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Lei Tingjie
99%
99%
96¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Lei Tingjie
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lei Tingjie
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
- Volume
- $205
Tan Zhongyi99%99%96¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askTan Zhongyi99%Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Tan Zhongyi
99%
99%
96¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Tan Zhongyi
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tan Zhongyi
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
- Volume
- $205
Zhu Jiner99%99%92¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askZhu Jiner99%Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Zhu Jiner
99%
99%
92¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Zhu Jiner
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zhu Jiner
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- Volume
- $696
Hou Yifan98.5%98.5%97¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askHou Yifan98.5%Kalshi 98.5%polled, 1 min ago
Hou Yifan
98.5%
98.5%
97¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Hou Yifan
98.5%
Kalshi 98.5%polled, 1 min ago
Koneru Humpy98%98%90¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askKoneru Humpy98%Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min ago
Koneru Humpy
98%
98%
90¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Koneru Humpy
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Koneru Humpy
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 90¢
- Volume
- $1K
Bibisara Assaubayeva97%97%91¢ bid, — askpolled, 1 min agoNo askBibisara Assaubayeva97%Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min ago
Bibisara Assaubayeva
97%
97%
91¢ bid, — ask
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Bibisara Assaubayeva
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bibisara Assaubayeva
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- Volume
- $2K
Polina Shuvalova67%67%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askPolina Shuvalova67%Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min ago
Polina Shuvalova
67%
67%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Polina Shuvalova
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Polina Shuvalova
- Last price
- 67%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $2K
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Anastasiia Hnatyshyn49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Anastasiia Hnatyshyn49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anastasiia Hnatyshyn
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anastasiia Hnatyshyn
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anastasiia Hnatyshyn
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Nino Batsiashvili49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Nino Batsiashvili49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nino Batsiashvili
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nino Batsiashvili
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nino Batsiashvili
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Kateryna Lagno31%31%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Kateryna Lagno31%Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kateryna Lagno
31%
31%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kateryna Lagno
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kateryna Lagno
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $1K
Vaishali Rameshbabu16%16%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, 1 min ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Vaishali Rameshbabu16%Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Vaishali Rameshbabu
16%
16%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Vaishali Rameshbabu
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vaishali Rameshbabu
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $1K
Divya Deshmukh8%8%— bid, 83¢ askpolled, 1 min ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Divya Deshmukh8%Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Divya Deshmukh
8%
8%
— bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Divya Deshmukh
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Divya Deshmukh
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
- Volume
- $2K
Mariya Muzychuk4%4%— bid, 84¢ askpolled, 1 min ago84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)Mariya Muzychuk4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Mariya Muzychuk
4%
4%
— bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Mariya Muzychuk
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mariya Muzychuk
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $1K
Alexandra Kosteniuk3%3%1¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 1 min ago90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Alexandra Kosteniuk3%Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Alexandra Kosteniuk
3%
3%
1¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Alexandra Kosteniuk
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexandra Kosteniuk
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $800
Alina Kashlinskaya2%2%No order bookpolled, 1 min agoNo askAlina Kashlinskaya2%Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min ago
Alina Kashlinskaya
2%
2%
No order book
polled, 1 min ago
No ask
Alina Kashlinskaya
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alina Kashlinskaya
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $200
Carissa Yip1%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Carissa Yip1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carissa Yip
1%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Carissa Yip
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carissa Yip
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $600
Nana Dzagnidze1%1%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 1 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Nana Dzagnidze1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nana Dzagnidze
1%
1%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nana Dzagnidze
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nana Dzagnidze
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $400
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIDE World Top Players
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Aleksandra Goryachkina
- Anna Muzychuk
- Ju Wenjun
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "FIDE Standard Top Women Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in November 2026". Aleksandra Goryachkina leads at 99%. Next is Anna Muzychuk at 99%. $16K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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