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What the markets expect
Ju Wenjun 98%
Next is Lei Tingjie at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Ju Wenjun98%98%92¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 30s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Ju Wenjun98%Kalshi 98%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Ju Wenjun
98%
98%
92¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Ju Wenjun
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ju Wenjun
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $205
Lei Tingjie98%98%92¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 30s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Lei Tingjie98%Kalshi 98%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Lei Tingjie
98%
98%
92¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Lei Tingjie
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lei Tingjie
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $405
Zhu Jiner97%97%92¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 30s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Zhu Jiner97%Kalshi 97%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Zhu Jiner
97%
97%
92¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Zhu Jiner
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zhu Jiner
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $810
Aleksandra Goryachkina72%72%No order bookpolled, 30s agoNo askAleksandra Goryachkina72%Kalshi 72%polled, 30s ago
Aleksandra Goryachkina
72%
72%
No order book
polled, 30s ago
No ask
Aleksandra Goryachkina
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 30s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aleksandra Goryachkina
- Last price
- 72%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $2K
Hou Yifan59.5%59.5%20¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Hou Yifan59.5%Kalshi 59.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Hou Yifan
59.5%
59.5%
20¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Hou Yifan
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hou Yifan
- Last price
- 59.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Alexandra Kosteniuk49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Alexandra Kosteniuk49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Alexandra Kosteniuk
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Alexandra Kosteniuk
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alexandra Kosteniuk
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Alina Kashlinskaya49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Alina Kashlinskaya49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Alina Kashlinskaya
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Alina Kashlinskaya
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alina Kashlinskaya
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Anastasiia Hnatyshyn49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Anastasiia Hnatyshyn49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anastasiia Hnatyshyn
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anastasiia Hnatyshyn
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anastasiia Hnatyshyn
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Anna Muzychuk49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Anna Muzychuk49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anna Muzychuk
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anna Muzychuk
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anna Muzychuk
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Carissa Yip49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Carissa Yip49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Carissa Yip
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Carissa Yip
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Carissa Yip
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Mariya Muzychuk49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Mariya Muzychuk49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Mariya Muzychuk
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Mariya Muzychuk
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mariya Muzychuk
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Nana Dzagnidze49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Nana Dzagnidze49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nana Dzagnidze
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nana Dzagnidze
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nana Dzagnidze
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Nino Batsiashvili49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Nino Batsiashvili49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nino Batsiashvili
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Nino Batsiashvili
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nino Batsiashvili
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Polina Shuvalova49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Polina Shuvalova49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polina Shuvalova
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polina Shuvalova
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Polina Shuvalova
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Vaishali Rameshbabu49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Vaishali Rameshbabu49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Vaishali Rameshbabu
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Vaishali Rameshbabu
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vaishali Rameshbabu
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Tan Zhongyi29%29%— bid, 85¢ askpolled, 30s ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Tan Zhongyi29%Kalshi 29%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Tan Zhongyi
29%
29%
— bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Tan Zhongyi
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tan Zhongyi
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
- Volume
- $628
Bibisara Assaubayeva9%9%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Bibisara Assaubayeva9%Kalshi 9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Bibisara Assaubayeva
9%
9%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Bibisara Assaubayeva
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bibisara Assaubayeva
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $2K
Divya Deshmukh4%4%No order bookpolled, 30s agoNo askDivya Deshmukh4%Kalshi 4%polled, 30s ago
Divya Deshmukh
4%
4%
No order book
polled, 30s ago
No ask
Divya Deshmukh
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 30s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Divya Deshmukh
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $400
Kateryna Lagno3%3%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Kateryna Lagno3%Kalshi 3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kateryna Lagno
3%
3%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kateryna Lagno
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Kateryna Lagno
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $2K
Koneru Humpy1%1%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 30s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Koneru Humpy1%Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Koneru Humpy
1%
1%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 30s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Koneru Humpy
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Koneru Humpy
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $800
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIDE World Top Players
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Ju Wenjun
- Lei Tingjie
- Zhu Jiner
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "FIDE Standard Top Women Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in November 2026". Ju Wenjun leads at 98%. Next is Lei Tingjie at 98%. $9K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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