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What the markets expect
Fabiano Caruana 95%
Next is Nodirbek Abdusattorov at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Fabiano Caruana95%95%93¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 16s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Fabiano Caruana95%Kalshi 95%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Fabiano Caruana
95%
95%
93¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Fabiano Caruana
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fabiano Caruana
- Last price
- 95%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $719
Nodirbek Abdusattorov77%77%35¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 16s ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)Nodirbek Abdusattorov77%Kalshi 77%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
77%
77%
35¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $2K
Wesley So70%70%8¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 16s ago90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Wesley So70%Kalshi 70%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Wesley So
70%
70%
8¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Wesley So
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wesley So
- Last price
- 70%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $2K
Magnus Carlsen59.5%59.5%20¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Magnus Carlsen59.5%Kalshi 59.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Magnus Carlsen
59.5%
59.5%
20¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Magnus Carlsen
59.5%
Kalshi 59.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Magnus Carlsen
- Last price
- 59.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Hikaru Nakamura59%59%20¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 16s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Hikaru Nakamura59%Kalshi 59%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Hikaru Nakamura
59%
59%
20¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Hikaru Nakamura
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hikaru Nakamura
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Javokhir Sindarov59%59%20¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 16s ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Javokhir Sindarov59%Kalshi 59%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Javokhir Sindarov
59%
59%
20¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Javokhir Sindarov
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Javokhir Sindarov
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
Alireza Firouzja49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Alireza Firouzja49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Alireza Firouzja
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Alireza Firouzja
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alireza Firouzja
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Anish Giri49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Anish Giri49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anish Giri
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anish Giri
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anish Giri
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Arjun Erigaisi49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Arjun Erigaisi49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Arjun Erigaisi
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Arjun Erigaisi
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arjun Erigaisi
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Gukesh Dommaraju49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Gukesh Dommaraju49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Gukesh Dommaraju
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Gukesh Dommaraju
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Gukesh Dommaraju
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Hans Moke Niemann49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Hans Moke Niemann49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Hans Moke Niemann
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Hans Moke Niemann
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hans Moke Niemann
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Jan-Krzysztof Duda49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Jan-Krzysztof Duda
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jan-Krzysztof Duda
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Jorden Van Foreest49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Jorden Van Foreest49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Jorden Van Foreest
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Jorden Van Foreest
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jorden Van Foreest
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Le Quang Liem49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Le Quang Liem49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Le Quang Liem
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Le Quang Liem
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Le Quang Liem
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Leinier Domínguez Pérez49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Leinier Domínguez Pérez49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Leinier Domínguez Pérez
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Leinier Domínguez Pérez
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Leinier Domínguez Pérez
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Liren Ding49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Liren Ding49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Liren Ding
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Liren Ding
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Liren Ding
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Viswanathan Anand49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Viswanathan Anand49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Viswanathan Anand
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Viswanathan Anand
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Viswanathan Anand
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Wei Yi49.5%49.5%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Wei Yi49.5%Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Wei Yi
49.5%
49.5%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Wei Yi
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wei Yi
- Last price
- 49.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa14%14%— bid, 99¢ askpolled, 16s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa14%Kalshi 14%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
14%
14%
— bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $220
Vincent Keymer14%14%— bid, 81¢ askpolled, 16s ago81¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $123 (1.23x)Vincent Keymer14%Kalshi 14%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Vincent Keymer
14%
14%
— bid, 81¢ ask
polled, 16s ago
81¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Vincent Keymer
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Vincent Keymer
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 81¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $123 (1.23x)
- Volume
- $227
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIDE World Top Players
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Fabiano Caruana
- Nodirbek Abdusattorov
- Wesley So
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in November 2026". Fabiano Caruana leads at 95%. Next is Nodirbek Abdusattorov at 77%. $5K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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