The Prediction Markets

Fighters to compete in MVP MMA before 2028

Closes
Jan 8, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$8K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Amanda Serrano 57%

Next is Jake Paul at 46%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Amanda Serrano
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amanda Serrano
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jake Paul
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jake Paul
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Muhammad Mokaev
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Muhammad Mokaev
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Page
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Page
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Conor McGregor
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conor McGregor
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$423
Trade this on Kalshi
Gervonta Davis
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gervonta Davis
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$721
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Chandler
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Chandler
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruno Lopes
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Lopes
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jennifer Maia
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jennifer Maia
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lyman Good
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lyman Good
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 14 more outcomes
Paulo Costa
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paulo Costa
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Qileng Aori
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qileng Aori
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Garcia
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Garcia
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Saygid Izagakhmaev
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Saygid Izagakhmaev
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthony Joshua
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Joshua
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Canelo Alvarez
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Canelo Alvarez
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Charles Oliveira
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Oliveira
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Floyd Mayweather Jr.
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Floyd Mayweather Jr.
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Ilia Topuria
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ilia Topuria
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamaru Usman
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamaru Usman
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Oleksandr Usyk
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oleksandr Usyk
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyson Fury
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyson Fury
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$175
Trade this on Kalshi
Tony Ferguson
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tony Ferguson
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Sean O'Malley
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sean O'Malley
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$305
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN, AP

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Amanda Serrano
  • Jake Paul
  • Muhammad Mokaev

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fighters to compete in MVP MMA before 2028". Amanda Serrano leads at 57%. Next is Jake Paul at 46%. $8K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 8, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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