The Prediction Markets

Finnish general election winner?

Closes
Apr 29, 2028, in 18 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Social Democratic Party 71.7%

Next is Finns Party at 12.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Social Democratic Party 71.7%Finns Party 12.3%National Coalition Party 10.4%Green League 2.8%Left Alliance 2.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Social Democratic Party
71.7%
Kalshi 76%(71.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Social Democratic Party
Last price
76%
Fair, margin removed
71.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Kalshi
Finns Party
12.3%
Kalshi 13%(12.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Finns Party
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
12.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
National Coalition Party
10.4%
Kalshi 11%(10.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
National Coalition Party
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
10.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$654
Trade this on Kalshi
Green League
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green League
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Left Alliance
2.8%
Kalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Left Alliance
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ministry of Justice, Election Unit

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Social Democratic Party
  • Finns Party
  • National Coalition Party

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Finnish general election winner?". Social Democratic Party leads at 71.7%. Next is Finns Party at 12.3%. $2K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 29, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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