The Prediction Markets

First snow of the 2026 season

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$37K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30 95.6%

Next is Pittsburgh, PA by November 30 at 94%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
95.6%
Polymarket 95.6%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
Last price
95.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
94%
Polymarket 94%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Denver, CO by November 30
91.1%
Polymarket 91.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 91.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denver, CO by November 30
Last price
91.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91.4¢
Sell Yes
90.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Polymarket
Minneapolis, MN by November 30
82.5%
Polymarket 82.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minneapolis, MN by November 30
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$826
Trade this on Polymarket
Chicago, IL by November 30
81.5%
Polymarket 81.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chicago, IL by November 30
Last price
81.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket
Indianapolis, IN by November 30
78.1%
Polymarket 78.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 82.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $121 (1.21x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indianapolis, IN by November 30
Last price
78.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82.5¢
Sell Yes
73.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$121 (1.21x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kansas City, MO by November 30
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kansas City, MO by November 30
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Polymarket
New York City, NY by November 30
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
New York City, NY by November 30
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nashville, TN by November 30
73%
Polymarket 73%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nashville, TN by November 30
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$469
Trade this on Polymarket
Detroit, MI by November 30
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Detroit, MI by November 30
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$764
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 21 more outcomes
Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Indianapolis, IN by November 15
70%
Polymarket 70%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indianapolis, IN by November 15
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Minneapolis, MN by November 15
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minneapolis, MN by November 15
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket
St. Louis, MO by November 30
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
St. Louis, MO by November 30
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$944
Trade this on Polymarket
Buffalo, NY by November 30
64.1%
Polymarket 64.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Buffalo, NY by November 30
Last price
64.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
28.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$174
Trade this on Polymarket
Denver, CO by November 15
62.9%
Polymarket 62.9%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 66.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $150 (1.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denver, CO by November 15
Last price
62.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66.7¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$150 (1.50x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Polymarket
Washington, DC by November 30
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington, DC by November 30
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket
Buffalo, NY by November 15
54%
Polymarket 54%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Buffalo, NY by November 15
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Philadelphia, PA by November 30
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philadelphia, PA by November 30
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Boston, MA by November 30
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boston, MA by November 30
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kansas City, MO by November 15
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kansas City, MO by November 15
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$902
Trade this on Polymarket
Boston, MA by November 15
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boston, MA by November 15
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Polymarket
Chicago, IL by November 15
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chicago, IL by November 15
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Cincinnati, OH by November 30
41%
Polymarket 41%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cincinnati, OH by November 30
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$651
Trade this on Polymarket
Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
40%
Polymarket 40%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$981
Trade this on Polymarket
Detroit, MI by November 15
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Detroit, MI by November 15
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Buffalo, NY by October 31
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Buffalo, NY by October 31
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Denver, CO by October 31
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denver, CO by October 31
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dallas, TX by November 30
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dallas, TX by November 30
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$764
Trade this on Polymarket
Minneapolis, MN by October 31
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minneapolis, MN by October 31
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: forecast.weather.gov

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
  • Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
  • Denver, CO by November 30

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "First snow of the 2026 season". Salt Lake City, UT by November 30 leads at 95.6%. Next is Pittsburgh, PA by November 30 at 94%. $37K has traded across 31 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for each listed city that records any snowfall, including trace, between market creation and the listed deadline, 11:59 PM local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The observation day is each station's National Weather Service climate day (midnight to midnight local time). Each market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as a report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as a report has been published for every day of its window. Because the final climate report for a day is issued the following morning, each market carries a resolution date 3 days after its deadline as an outer limit for that publication lag, not a waiting period: October 31, 2026 (by November 3, 2026); November 15, 2026 (by November 18, 2026); November 30, 2026 (by December 3, 2026). Each market's resolution source is that city's NWS Daily Climate Report, linked in that market's details. Those pages show the latest report only; past daily reports for every city are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets