The Prediction Markets

First to list tokenized stocks in the US?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$90K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
15 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Robinhood 37.8%

Next is No listing by December 31, 2027 at 29.1%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Robinhood 37.8%No listing by December 31, 2027 29.1%Coinbase 18.9%Kraken 10.2%Gemini 4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 15 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Robinhood
37.8%
Polymarket 36.5%(37.8% fair)polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robinhood
Last price
36.5%
Fair, margin removed
37.8%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
No listing by December 31, 2027
29.1%
Polymarket 28.1%(29.1% fair)polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 31.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
No listing by December 31, 2027
Last price
28.1%
Fair, margin removed
29.1%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
31.9¢
Sell Yes
24.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Coinbase
18.9%
Polymarket 18.3%(18.9% fair)polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 18.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $541 (5.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Coinbase
Last price
18.3%
Fair, margin removed
18.9%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
18.5¢
Sell Yes
18.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$541 (5.41x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kraken
10.2%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 11.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $870 (8.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kraken
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
11.5¢
Sell Yes
8.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$870 (8.70x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gemini
4%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 15 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gemini
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 15 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Robinhood
  • No listing by December 31, 2027
  • Coinbase

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "First to list tokenized stocks in the US?". Robinhood leads at 37.8%. Next is No listing by December 31, 2027 at 29.1%. $90K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to the first of the listed platforms to make tokenized stocks available for purchase in the United States after September 17, 2026. If none of the listed platforms do so by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No listing by December 31, 2027". A tokenized stock means a blockchain-based token that represents one share, or a fraction of a share, of a stock or ETF listed on a U.S. national securities exchange (such as Nasdaq or the NYSE) and is either backed one-to-one by that security or is itself a share of that security recorded on a blockchain. Tokens tracking shares of private companies, synthetic or derivative products that track a stock's price without being backed by the underlying shares, and stablecoins will not count. Tokenized stocks are available on a platform when customers holding a U.S. account with that platform are able to buy at least one tokenized stock on that platform, regardless of subscription tier or account minimum. Availability to customers in at least one U.S. state will qualify. Availability limited to customers outside the United States, accredited investors, internal or employee testing, waitlists, and invite-only programs will not qualify. Purchases through a self-custodial wallet or a decentralized exchange, including one reached through the platform's app, will not count. Announcements alone will not qualify. If two or more listed platforms qualify on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the platform whose tokenized stocks became purchasable first; if that order cannot be established, to the platform that first publicly confirmed availability. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the platforms; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

See all crypto markets