The Prediction Markets

Florida Governor margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$150K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Donalds, 1+ pts 79%

Next is Donalds, 3+ pts at 69%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

1 of 20 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Donalds, 1+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 1+ pts
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 3+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 3+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly, 1+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jolly, 1+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 6+ pts
44%
Kalshi 44%live, just nowBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 6+ pts
Price
44%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 9+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 9+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds 3-6%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 3-6%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 6-9%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 6-9%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds, 12+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 12+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly 0-3%
12.3%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $781 (7.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jolly 0-3%
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12.8¢
Sell Yes
11.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$781 (7.81x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 0-3%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 0-3%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Donalds 12-15%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $709 (7.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 12-15%
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
8.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 9-12%
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 9-12%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds, 15+ pts
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 15+ pts
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly, 3+ pts
7.8%
Kalshi 7.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jolly, 3+ pts
Last price
7.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.9¢
Sell Yes
7.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,010 (10.1x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jolly, 6+ pts
6.8%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jolly, 6+ pts
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds, 18+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Donalds, 18+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donalds 18%+
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 18%+
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donalds 15-18%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donalds 15-18%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$765
Trade this on Polymarket
Jolly 3-6%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jolly 3-6%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$745
Trade this on Polymarket
Jolly 6%+
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jolly 6%+
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$698
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Donalds, 1+ pts
  • Donalds, 3+ pts
  • Jolly, 1+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Donalds, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida Governor margin of victory". Donalds, 1+ pts leads at 79%. Next is Donalds, 3+ pts at 69%. $150K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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