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What the markets expect
Donalds, 1+ pts 79%
Next is Donalds, 3+ pts at 73%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
1 of 20 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Donalds, 1+ pts79%Not listed79%77¢ bid, 80¢ askpolled, 22s ago80¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $125 (1.25x)Donalds, 1+ pts79%Kalshi 79%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Donalds, 1+ pts
79%
Not listed
79%
77¢ bid, 80¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
80¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Donalds, 1+ pts
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donalds, 1+ pts
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 80¢
- Sell Yes
- 77¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $125 (1.25x)
- Volume
- $6K
Donalds, 3+ pts73%Not listed73%70¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 22s ago74¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $135 (1.35x)Donalds, 3+ pts73%Kalshi 73%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Donalds, 3+ pts
73%
Not listed
73%
70¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
74¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Donalds, 3+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donalds, 3+ pts
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 70¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
- Volume
- $27K
Donalds, 6+ pts47%Not listed47%47¢ bid, 48¢ asklive, just now48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Donalds, 6+ pts47%Kalshi 47%live, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Donalds, 6+ pts
47%
Not listed
47%
47¢ bid, 48¢ ask
live, just now
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Donalds, 6+ pts
47%
Kalshi 47%live, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donalds, 6+ pts
- Price
- 47%
- As of
- Live feed, just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $40K
Donalds, 9+ pts27%Not listed27%26¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 22s ago28¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $357 (3.57x)Donalds, 9+ pts27%Kalshi 27%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Donalds, 9+ pts
27%
Not listed
27%
26¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
28¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Donalds, 9+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donalds, 9+ pts
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $18K
Donalds 3-6%22.5%22.5%21¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Donalds 3-6%22.5%Polymarket 22.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Donalds 3-6%
22.5%
22.5%
21¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Donalds 3-6%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Donalds 3-6%
- Last price
- 22.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $5K
Donalds 6-9%20.5%20.5%19¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)Donalds 6-9%20.5%Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Donalds 6-9%
20.5%
20.5%
19¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Donalds 6-9%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Donalds 6-9%
- Last price
- 20.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $5K
Donalds, 12+ pts14%Not listed14%14¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 22s ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Donalds, 12+ pts14%Kalshi 14%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Donalds, 12+ pts
14%
Not listed
14%
14¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Donalds, 12+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donalds, 12+ pts
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $8K
Donalds 12-15%11.8%11.8%9.8¢ bid, 13.7¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed13.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $730 (7.30x)Donalds 12-15%11.8%Polymarket 11.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Donalds 12-15%
11.8%
11.8%
9.8¢ bid, 13.7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
13.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Donalds 12-15%
11.8%
Polymarket 11.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Donalds 12-15%
- Last price
- 11.8%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 9.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $730 (7.30x)
- Volume
- $1K
Donalds 0-3%11.5%11.5%10¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed13¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Donalds 0-3%11.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Donalds 0-3%
11.5%
11.5%
10¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
13¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Donalds 0-3%
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Donalds 0-3%
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $3K
Jolly, 1+ pts10.5%Not listed10.5%5¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 2 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Jolly, 1+ pts10.5%Kalshi 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Jolly, 1+ pts
10.5%
Not listed
10.5%
5¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Jolly, 1+ pts
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jolly, 1+ pts
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
Show 10 more outcomesHide 10 outcomes
Donalds 9-12%10.5%10.5%10¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed11¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Donalds 9-12%10.5%Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Donalds 9-12%
10.5%
10.5%
10¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
11¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Donalds 9-12%
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Donalds 9-12%
- Last price
- 10.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $4K
Jolly 0-3%9.6%9.6%8.2¢ bid, 10.9¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed10.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $917 (9.17x)Jolly 0-3%9.6%Polymarket 9.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Jolly 0-3%
9.6%
9.6%
8.2¢ bid, 10.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
10.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Jolly 0-3%
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jolly 0-3%
- Last price
- 9.6%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $917 (9.17x)
- Volume
- $1K
Donalds, 15+ pts9.5%Not listed9.5%4.6¢ bid, 9.5¢ askpolled, 22s ago9.5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)Donalds, 15+ pts9.5%Kalshi 9.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Donalds, 15+ pts
9.5%
Not listed
9.5%
4.6¢ bid, 9.5¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
9.5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Donalds, 15+ pts
9.5%
Kalshi 9.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donalds, 15+ pts
- Last price
- 9.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,053 (10.5x)
- Volume
- $4K
Jolly, 3+ pts7.8%Not listed7.8%7.3¢ bid, 9.8¢ askpolled, 2 min ago9.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)Jolly, 3+ pts7.8%Kalshi 7.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Jolly, 3+ pts
7.8%
Not listed
7.8%
7.3¢ bid, 9.8¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
9.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Jolly, 3+ pts
7.8%
Kalshi 7.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jolly, 3+ pts
- Last price
- 7.8%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,020 (10.2x)
- Volume
- $14K
Jolly, 6+ pts6.9%Not listed6.9%2.7¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago6.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Jolly, 6+ pts6.9%Kalshi 6.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Jolly, 6+ pts
6.9%
Not listed
6.9%
2.7¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
6.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Jolly, 6+ pts
6.9%
Kalshi 6.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jolly, 6+ pts
- Last price
- 6.9%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $7K
Donalds 18%+6.5%6.5%3.5¢ bid, 9.5¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed9.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)Donalds 18%+6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Donalds 18%+
6.5%
6.5%
3.5¢ bid, 9.5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
9.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Donalds 18%+
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Donalds 18%+
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,053 (10.5x)
- Volume
- $1K
Donalds, 18+ pts6.1%Not listed6.1%0.6¢ bid, 6.1¢ askpolled, 22s ago6.1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)Donalds, 18+ pts6.1%Kalshi 6.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Donalds, 18+ pts
6.1%
Not listed
6.1%
0.6¢ bid, 6.1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
6.1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Donalds, 18+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Donalds, 18+ pts
- Last price
- 6.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,639 (16.4x)
- Volume
- $1K
Donalds 15-18%3.7%3.7%1.1¢ bid, 6.3¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed6.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)Donalds 15-18%3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Donalds 15-18%
3.7%
3.7%
1.1¢ bid, 6.3¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
6.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Donalds 15-18%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Donalds 15-18%
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,587 (15.9x)
- Volume
- $765
Jolly 3-6%3.7%3.7%0.6¢ bid, 6.7¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed6.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)Jolly 3-6%3.7%Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Jolly 3-6%
3.7%
3.7%
0.6¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
6.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Jolly 3-6%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jolly 3-6%
- Last price
- 3.7%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $745
Jolly 6%+3.2%3.2%0.9¢ bid, 5.4¢ askpolled, 2 min agoNot listed5.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)Jolly 6%+3.2%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Jolly 6%+
3.2%
3.2%
0.9¢ bid, 5.4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
Not listed
5.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Jolly 6%+
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jolly 6%+
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,852 (18.5x)
- Volume
- $698
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Donalds, 1+ pts
- Donalds, 3+ pts
- Donalds, 6+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Donalds, 1+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Florida Governor margin of victory". Donalds, 1+ pts leads at 79%. Next is Donalds, 3+ pts at 73%. $150K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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