The Prediction Markets

Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Sarasota 90.5%

Next is St. Lucie at 66%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Sarasota
90.5%
Kalshi 90.5%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sarasota
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
St. Lucie
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
St. Lucie
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$445
Trade this on Kalshi
Miami-Dade
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miami-Dade
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Seminole
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Seminole
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$397
Trade this on Kalshi
Pinellas
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pinellas
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Kalshi
Hillsborough
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hillsborough
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Osceola
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Osceola
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$186
Trade this on Kalshi
Duval
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duval
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Kalshi
Palm Beach
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Palm Beach
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Division of Elections, Office of the Secretary of State, Tallahassee, FL

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Sarasota
  • St. Lucie
  • Miami-Dade

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?". Sarasota leads at 90.5%. Next is St. Lucie at 66%. $4K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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