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What the markets expect
Moody, 2+ pts 91.3%
Next is Moody, 1+ pts at 86.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
2 of 26 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Moody, 2+ pts91.3%Not listed91.3%88¢ bid, 91.3¢ askpolled, 38s ago91.3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $110 (1.10x)Moody, 2+ pts91.3%Kalshi 91.3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 91.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Moody, 2+ pts
91.3%
Not listed
91.3%
88¢ bid, 91.3¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
91.3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Moody, 2+ pts
91.3%
Kalshi 91.3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 91.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 2+ pts
- Last price
- 91.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 88¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $110 (1.10x)
- Volume
- $10K
Moody, 1+ pts86.9%Not listed86.9%82¢ bid, 91.7¢ askpolled, 38s ago91.7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Moody, 1+ pts86.9%Kalshi 86.9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 91.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Moody, 1+ pts
86.9%
Not listed
86.9%
82¢ bid, 91.7¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
91.7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Moody, 1+ pts
86.9%
Kalshi 86.9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 91.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 1+ pts
- Last price
- 86.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 91.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
Moody, 4+ pts84%Not listed84%82¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, 38s ago84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)Moody, 4+ pts84%Kalshi 84%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Moody, 4+ pts
84%
Not listed
84%
82¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Moody, 4+ pts
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 4+ pts
- Last price
- 84%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 82¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
- Volume
- $27K
Moody, 3+ pts80.5%Not listed80.5%76¢ bid, 85¢ askpolled, 38s ago85¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $118 (1.18x)Moody, 3+ pts80.5%Kalshi 80.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Moody, 3+ pts
80.5%
Not listed
80.5%
76¢ bid, 85¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
85¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Moody, 3+ pts
80.5%
Kalshi 80.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 3+ pts
- Last price
- 80.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 85¢
- Sell Yes
- 76¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $118 (1.18x)
Moody, 6+ pts71%Not listed71%71¢ bid, 72¢ asklive, just now72¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $139 (1.39x)Moody, 6+ pts71%Kalshi 71%live, just nowBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Moody, 6+ pts
71%
Not listed
71%
71¢ bid, 72¢ ask
live, just now
72¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Moody, 6+ pts
71%
Kalshi 71%live, just nowBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 6+ pts
- Price
- 71%
- As of
- Live feed, just now
- Buy Yes
- 72¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $139 (1.39x)
- Volume
- $49K
Moody, 5+ pts68.5%Not listed68.5%64¢ bid, 73¢ askpolled, 38s ago73¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $137 (1.37x)Moody, 5+ pts68.5%Kalshi 68.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Moody, 5+ pts
68.5%
Not listed
68.5%
64¢ bid, 73¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
73¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Moody, 5+ pts
68.5%
Kalshi 68.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 5+ pts
- Last price
- 68.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 73¢
- Sell Yes
- 64¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
Moody, 7+ pts59%Not listed59%52¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, 38s ago61¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $164 (1.64x)Moody, 7+ pts59%Kalshi 59%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Moody, 7+ pts
59%
Not listed
59%
52¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
61¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Moody, 7+ pts
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 7+ pts
- Last price
- 59%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $119
Moody, 8+ pts53%Not listed53%52¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 38s ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)Moody, 8+ pts53%Kalshi 53%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Moody, 8+ pts
53%
Not listed
53%
52¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Moody, 8+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 8+ pts
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 52¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $31K
Moody, 9+ pts42%Not listed42%37¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 38s ago47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Moody, 9+ pts42%Kalshi 42%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Moody, 9+ pts
42%
Not listed
42%
37¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Moody, 9+ pts
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 9+ pts
- Last price
- 42%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
Moody, 10+ pts38%Not listed38%37¢ bid, 38¢ asklive, just now38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Moody, 10+ pts38%Kalshi 38%live, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Moody, 10+ pts
38%
Not listed
38%
37¢ bid, 38¢ ask
live, just now
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Moody, 10+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%live, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 10+ pts
- Price
- 38%
- As of
- Live feed, just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 37¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $30K
Show 16 more outcomesHide 16 outcomes
Moody, 11+ pts31%Not listed31%25¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, 38s ago37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Moody, 11+ pts31%Kalshi 31%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Moody, 11+ pts
31%
Not listed
31%
25¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Moody, 11+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 11+ pts
- Last price
- 31%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
Moody 6-9%28%28%27¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Moody 6-9%28%Polymarket 28%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Moody 6-9%
28%
28%
27¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Moody 6-9%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moody 6-9%
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $5K
Moody, 12+ pts22%Not listed22%22¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 38s ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Moody, 12+ pts22%Kalshi 22%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Moody, 12+ pts
22%
Not listed
22%
22¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Moody, 12+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 12+ pts
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $31K
Moody 3-6%19.5%19.5%19¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Moody 3-6%19.5%Polymarket 19.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Moody 3-6%
19.5%
19.5%
19¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Moody 3-6%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moody 3-6%
- Last price
- 19.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $7K
Moody 0-3%18.9%18.9%17.1¢ bid, 20.6¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed20.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $485 (4.85x)Moody 0-3%18.9%Polymarket 18.9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Moody 0-3%
18.9%
18.9%
17.1¢ bid, 20.6¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
20.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Moody 0-3%
18.9%
Polymarket 18.9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $485 (4.85x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moody 0-3%
- Last price
- 18.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 17.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $485 (4.85x)
- Volume
- $4K
Moody 9-12%14.5%14.5%14¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Moody 9-12%14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Moody 9-12%
14.5%
14.5%
14¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Moody 9-12%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moody 9-12%
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $8K
Moody, 14+ pts13%Not listed13%13¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 38s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Moody, 14+ pts13%Kalshi 13%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Moody, 14+ pts
13%
Not listed
13%
13¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Moody, 14+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 14+ pts
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $13K
Moody, 16+ pts9.2%Not listed9.2%6.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ askpolled, 38s ago9.2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)Moody, 16+ pts9.2%Kalshi 9.2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Moody, 16+ pts
9.2%
Not listed
9.2%
6.1¢ bid, 9.2¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
9.2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Moody, 16+ pts
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 16+ pts
- Last price
- 9.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 6.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,087 (10.9x)
- Volume
- $7K
Nixon, 2+ pts8%Not listed8%2¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 5 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Nixon, 2+ pts8%Kalshi 8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Nixon, 2+ pts
8%
Not listed
8%
2¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Nixon, 2+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nixon, 2+ pts
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $4K
Nixon 0-3%6.3%6.3%2.6¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed9.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Nixon 0-3%6.3%Polymarket 6.3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Nixon 0-3%
6.3%
6.3%
2.6¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
9.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Nixon 0-3%
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nixon 0-3%
- Last price
- 6.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
- Volume
- $4K
Moody, 18+ pts5%Not listed5%2.4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 38s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Moody, 18+ pts5%Kalshi 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Moody, 18+ pts
5%
Not listed
5%
2.4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Moody, 18+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moody, 18+ pts
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
Moody 12-15%4.8%4.8%2.6¢ bid, 6.9¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed6.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)Moody 12-15%4.8%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Moody 12-15%
4.8%
4.8%
2.6¢ bid, 6.9¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
6.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Moody 12-15%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moody 12-15%
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,449 (14.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Moody 15-18%4.1%4.1%1.4¢ bid, 6.7¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed6.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)Moody 15-18%4.1%Polymarket 4.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Moody 15-18%
4.1%
4.1%
1.4¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
6.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Moody 15-18%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moody 15-18%
- Last price
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $1K
Nixon 3%+1.8%1.8%0.4¢ bid, 3.2¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed3.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)Nixon 3%+1.8%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Nixon 3%+
1.8%
1.8%
0.4¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
3.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Nixon 3%+
1.8%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nixon 3%+
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,125 (31.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
Moody 21%+1.1%1.1%0.3¢ bid, 1.8¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed1.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)Moody 21%+1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Moody 21%+
1.1%
1.1%
0.3¢ bid, 1.8¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
1.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Moody 21%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moody 21%+
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,556 (55.6x)
- Volume
- $925
Moody 18-21%0.6%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 38s agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Moody 18-21%0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Moody 18-21%
0.6%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 38s ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Moody 18-21%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moody 18-21%
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $854
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Florida Division of Elections
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Moody, 2+ pts
- Moody, 1+ pts
- Moody, 4+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Moody, 2+ pts for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Florida Senate margin of victory". Moody, 2+ pts leads at 91.3%. Next is Moody, 1+ pts at 86.9%. $238K has traded across 26 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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