The Prediction Markets

Florida Senate margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$237K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Moody, 2+ pts 92.1%

Next is Moody, 4+ pts at 83%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

3 of 20 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 6 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Moody, 2+ pts
92.1%
Kalshi 92.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 92.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moody, 2+ pts
Last price
92.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.5¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moody, 4+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moody, 4+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moody, 6+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%live, just nowBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moody, 6+ pts
Price
72%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moody, 8+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%live, just nowBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moody, 8+ pts
Price
53%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moody, 10+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%live, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moody, 10+ pts
Price
38%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moody 6-9%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moody 6-9%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moody, 12+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moody, 12+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moody 3-6%
19.5%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moody 3-6%
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moody 0-3%
18.9%
Polymarket 18.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $481 (4.81x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moody 0-3%
Last price
18.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.8¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$481 (4.81x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moody 9-12%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moody 9-12%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Moody, 14+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moody, 14+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moody, 16+ pts
9.1%
Kalshi 9.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moody, 16+ pts
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nixon, 2+ pts
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 6 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nixon, 2+ pts
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 6 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moody, 18+ pts
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moody, 18+ pts
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moody 12-15%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moody 12-15%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moody 15-18%
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moody 15-18%
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nixon 0-3%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nixon 0-3%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.3¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,326 (23.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nixon 3%+
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nixon 3%+
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moody 21%+
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moody 21%+
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Polymarket
Moody 18-21%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moody 18-21%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in, Florida Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Moody, 2+ pts
  • Moody, 4+ pts
  • Moody, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Moody, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida Senate margin of victory". Moody, 2+ pts leads at 92.1%. Next is Moody, 4+ pts at 83%. $237K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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