The Prediction Markets

Florida Senate: which counties will Angie Nixon win?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$22K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Broward 93%

Next is Duval at 83%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Broward
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, just nowBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Broward
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Duval
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Duval
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hillsborough
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hillsborough
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Miami-Dade
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Miami-Dade
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pinellas
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pinellas
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
St. Lucie
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
St. Lucie
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Division of Elections, Office of the Secretary of State, Tallahassee, FL

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Broward
  • Duval
  • Hillsborough

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida Senate: which counties will Angie Nixon win?". Broward leads at 93%. Next is Duval at 83%. $22K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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