The Prediction Markets

Florida's 12th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Bilirakis, 1+ pts 82.5%

Next is Bilirakis, 4+ pts at 75.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Bilirakis, 1+ pts
82.5%
Kalshi 82.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 1+ pts
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 4+ pts
75.5%
Kalshi 75.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 4+ pts
Last price
75.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 7+ pts
62.5%
Kalshi 62.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 7+ pts
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 10+ pts
47.5%
Kalshi 47.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 10+ pts
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 13+ pts
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 13+ pts
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 16+ pts
20.5%
Kalshi 20.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 16+ pts
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 19+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 19+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 22+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 22+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 25+ pts
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 25+ pts
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 28+ pts
6.7%
Kalshi 6.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 28+ pts
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Bilirakis, 31+ pts
6.2%
Kalshi 6.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 31+ pts
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$809
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 40+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 40+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 43+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 43+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 37+ pts
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 37+ pts
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$56
Trade this on Kalshi
Bilirakis, 34+ pts
4.6%
Kalshi 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bilirakis, 34+ pts
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bilirakis, 1+ pts
  • Bilirakis, 4+ pts
  • Bilirakis, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 12th District margin of victory". Bilirakis, 1+ pts leads at 82.5%. Next is Bilirakis, 4+ pts at 75.5%. $11K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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