The Prediction Markets

Florida's 15th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Lee, 1+ pts 90.5%

Next is Lee, 4+ pts at 80%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lee, 1+ pts
90.5%
Kalshi 90.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 1+ pts
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 4+ pts
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 4+ pts
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90.7¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$405
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 7+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 7+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 10+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 10+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 13+ pts
44.5%
Kalshi 44.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 13+ pts
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lee, 16+ pts
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 16+ pts
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, just nowBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lee, 19+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 19+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Lee, 22+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee, 22+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 17.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $585 (5.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.1¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$585 (5.85x)
Volume
$890
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, just nowBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
People, 2+ pts
8.1%
Kalshi 8.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
People, 2+ pts
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
People, 5+ pts
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
People, 5+ pts
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$836
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lee, 1+ pts
  • Lee, 4+ pts
  • Lee, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Lee, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 15th District margin of victory". Lee, 1+ pts leads at 90.5%. Next is Lee, 4+ pts at 80%. $20K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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