The Prediction Markets

Florida's 16th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Gruters, 1+ pts 72%

Next is Gruters, 4+ pts at 58%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gruters, 1+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gruters, 1+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$110
Trade this on Kalshi
Gruters, 4+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gruters, 4+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Gruters, 7+ pts
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gruters, 7+ pts
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$322
Trade this on Kalshi
Gruters, 10+ pts
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gruters, 10+ pts
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Gruters, 13+ pts
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gruters, 13+ pts
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$85
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
19.6%
Polymarket 19.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
19.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-3%
18.6%
Polymarket 18.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 18.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $529 (5.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
18.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.9¢
Sell Yes
18.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$529 (5.29x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 6-9%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gruters, 16+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gruters, 16+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 29.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $340 (3.40x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29.4¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$340 (3.40x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Kirschner, 2+ pts
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 7 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kirschner, 2+ pts
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gruters, 19+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gruters, 19+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 18%+
9.3%
Polymarket 9.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
9.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gruters, 22+ pts
8.6%
Kalshi 8.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gruters, 22+ pts
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-18%
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
7.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$547
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6%+
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$595
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 3-6%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$701
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gruters, 1+ pts
  • Gruters, 4+ pts
  • Gruters, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Gruters, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 16th District margin of victory". Gruters, 1+ pts leads at 72%. Next is Gruters, 4+ pts at 58%. $23K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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