The Prediction Markets

Florida's 18th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Franklin, 1+ pts 85%

Next is Franklin, 4+ pts at 79.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Franklin, 1+ pts
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 1+ pts
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.2¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Franklin, 4+ pts
79.5%
Kalshi 79.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 4+ pts
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Franklin, 7+ pts
67.5%
Kalshi 67.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 7+ pts
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Franklin, 10+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 10+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Kalshi
Franklin, 13+ pts
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 13+ pts
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Franklin, 16+ pts
24.5%
Kalshi 24.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 16+ pts
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
20.5%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Franklin, 19+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 19+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Franklin, 22+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 22+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Franklin, 25+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 25+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Kalshi
Franklin, 28+ pts
7.2%
Kalshi 7.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 28+ pts
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Polymarket
Franklin, 31+ pts
6.3%
Kalshi 6.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 31+ pts
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$930
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$756
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Franklin, 34+ pts
2.9%
Kalshi 2.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Franklin, 34+ pts
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-5%
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Franklin, 1+ pts
  • Franklin, 4+ pts
  • Franklin, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Franklin, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 18th District margin of victory". Franklin, 1+ pts leads at 85%. Next is Franklin, 4+ pts at 79.5%. $24K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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