The Prediction Markets

Florida's 1st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Patronis, 11+ pts 96.1%

Next is Patronis, 14+ pts at 95.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Patronis, 11+ pts
96.1%
Kalshi 96.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 11+ pts
Last price
96.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Patronis, 14+ pts
95.3%
Kalshi 95.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 14+ pts
Last price
95.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Patronis, 17+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 17+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98.2¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
Patronis, 20+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 20+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Patronis, 23+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 23+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Patronis, 26+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 26+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Patronis, 29+ pts
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 29+ pts
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Patronis, 32+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 32+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Patronis, 35+ pts
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 35+ pts
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Republican 25-30%
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 35-40%
20.2%
Polymarket 20.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $350 (3.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 35-40%
Last price
20.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28.6¢
Sell Yes
11.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$350 (3.50x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30-35%
11.2%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30-35%
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Patronis, 41+ pts
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 41+ pts
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Patronis, 38+ pts
9.6%
Kalshi 9.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patronis, 38+ pts
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 45%+
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 45%+
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 15-20%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$753
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-15%
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-15%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$841
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 40-45%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 40-45%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Patronis, 11+ pts
  • Patronis, 14+ pts
  • Patronis, 17+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Patronis, 11+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 1st District margin of victory". Patronis, 11+ pts leads at 96.1%. Next is Patronis, 14+ pts at 95.3%. $24K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets