The Prediction Markets

Florida's 23rd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$40K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Frankel, 2+ pts 95.5%

Next is Frankel, 5+ pts at 95.3%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Frankel, 2+ pts
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 2+ pts
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 5+ pts
95.3%
Kalshi 95.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 5+ pts
Last price
95.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 8+ pts
93.9%
Kalshi 93.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 8+ pts
Last price
93.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 11+ pts
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 11+ pts
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
93.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 14+ pts
92.3%
Kalshi 92.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 95.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 14+ pts
Last price
92.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
95.9¢
Sell Yes
92.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 17+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 17+ pts
Last price
90.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
90.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 20+ pts
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 20+ pts
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 23+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 23+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 26+ pts
69.5%
Kalshi 69.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 26+ pts
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 29+ pts
54.5%
Kalshi 54.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 29+ pts
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
Frankel, 32+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 32+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 25-30%
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 20-25%
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 20-25%
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Frankel, 35+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 35+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 35%+
19.3%
Polymarket 19.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35%+
Last price
19.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 30-35%
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $629 (6.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15.9¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$629 (6.29x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Frankel, 38+ pts
14.1%
Kalshi 14.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 38+ pts
Last price
14.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankel, 41+ pts
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankel, 41+ pts
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$410
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-20%
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-20%
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$513
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5-10%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5-10%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 10-15%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 10-15%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Frankel, 2+ pts
  • Frankel, 5+ pts
  • Frankel, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Frankel, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 23rd District margin of victory". Frankel, 2+ pts leads at 95.5%. Next is Frankel, 5+ pts at 95.3%. $40K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets