The Prediction Markets

Florida's 24th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Gilbert, 29+ pts 96%

Next is Gilbert, 32+ pts at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Gilbert, 29+ pts
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 29+ pts
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.4¢
Sell Yes
92.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gilbert, 32+ pts
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 32+ pts
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.3¢
Sell Yes
90.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gilbert, 35+ pts
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 35+ pts
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.2¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Kalshi
Gilbert, 38+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 93.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 38+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.2¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$673
Trade this on Kalshi
Gilbert, 41+ pts
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 41+ pts
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$182
Trade this on Kalshi
Gilbert, 44+ pts
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 44+ pts
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$106
Trade this on Kalshi
Gilbert, 47+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 47+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$253
Trade this on Kalshi
Gilbert, 50+ pts
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 50+ pts
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$740
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 45-50%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 37.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $267 (2.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 45-50%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37.4¢
Sell Yes
20.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$267 (2.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 50-55%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 50-55%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Democrat 55%+
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 55%+
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gilbert, 53+ pts
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 53+ pts
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 40-45%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 40-45%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 35-40%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 35-40%
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gilbert, 56+ pts
11.1%
Kalshi 11.1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gilbert, 56+ pts
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 30-35%
8.9%
Polymarket 8.9%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 16.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $617 (6.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 30-35%
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16.2¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$617 (6.17x)
Volume
$849
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 15-25%
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 15-25%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 25-30%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 25-30%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$509
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-15%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-15%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$342
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican Wins
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican Wins
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$409
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Florida Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gilbert, 29+ pts
  • Gilbert, 32+ pts
  • Gilbert, 35+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Gilbert, 29+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 24th District margin of victory". Gilbert, 29+ pts leads at 96%. Next is Gilbert, 32+ pts at 95%. $23K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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