The Prediction Markets

Florida's 28th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$19K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Giménez, 2+ pts 89%

Next is Giménez, 5+ pts at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Giménez, 2+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giménez, 2+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.5¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$790
Trade this on Kalshi
Giménez, 5+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giménez, 5+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$170
Trade this on Kalshi
Giménez, 8+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giménez, 8+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Giménez, 11+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giménez, 11+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Kalshi
Giménez, 14+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giménez, 14+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Kalshi
Giménez, 17+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giménez, 17+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 10-15%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Giménez, 20+ pts
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giménez, 20+ pts
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 7 more outcomes
Giménez, 23+ pts
15.3%
Kalshi 15.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giménez, 23+ pts
Last price
15.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 20-25%
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Giménez, 26+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Giménez, 26+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 25-30%
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$542
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat Wins
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$561
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$268
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 48s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Florida Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Giménez, 2+ pts
  • Giménez, 5+ pts
  • Giménez, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Giménez, 2+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 28th District margin of victory". Giménez, 2+ pts leads at 89%. Next is Giménez, 5+ pts at 82%. $19K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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