The Prediction Markets

Florida's 2nd District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$42K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Rogers, 1+ pts 86%

Next is Rogers, 4+ pts at 72%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Rogers, 1+ pts
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 1+ pts
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 4+ pts
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 4+ pts
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 7+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 7+ pts
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 10+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 10+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 13+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 13+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 5-10%
27.8%
Polymarket 27.8%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 30.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $328 (3.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
27.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30.5¢
Sell Yes
25.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$328 (3.28x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogers, 16+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 16+ pts
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 19+ pts
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 19+ pts
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
13.9%
Polymarket 13.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
13.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Republican 15-20%
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rogers, 22+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 22+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Rogers, 25+ pts
8.7%
Kalshi 8.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,149 (11.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rogers, 25+ pts
Last price
8.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-5%
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-5%
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25%+
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25%+
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 5%+
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 44s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 5%+
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rogers, 1+ pts
  • Rogers, 4+ pts
  • Rogers, 7+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Rogers, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 2nd District margin of victory". Rogers, 1+ pts leads at 86%. Next is Rogers, 4+ pts at 72%. $42K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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