The Prediction Markets

Florida's 4th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bean, 3+ pts 69%

Next is Bean, 6+ pts at 53%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bean, 3+ pts
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 3+ pts
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Bean, 6+ pts
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 6+ pts
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Bean, 9+ pts
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 9+ pts
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
24.4%
Polymarket 24.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
24.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bean, 12+ pts
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 12+ pts
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 12-15%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bean, 15+ pts
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 15+ pts
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
10.8%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 14.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $676 (6.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.8¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$676 (6.76x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 8 more outcomes
Bean, 18+ pts
9.3%
Kalshi 9.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 18+ pts
Last price
9.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Holloway, 3+ pts
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Holloway, 3+ pts
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-18%
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$328
Trade this on Polymarket
Bean, 21+ pts
7.1%
Kalshi 7.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bean, 21+ pts
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 0-3%
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10.2¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$980 (9.80x)
Volume
$406
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 21%+
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 21%+
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18-21%
3.9%
Polymarket 3.9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18-21%
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$711
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 3%+
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3%+
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$358
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bean, 3+ pts
  • Bean, 6+ pts
  • Bean, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Bean, 3+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 4th District margin of victory". Bean, 3+ pts leads at 69%. Next is Bean, 6+ pts at 53%. $18K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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