The Prediction Markets

Florida's 7th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Elijah, 1+ pts 68%

Next is Elijah, 2+ pts at 58%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Elijah, 1+ pts
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elijah, 1+ pts
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Elijah, 2+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elijah, 2+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elijah, 5+ pts
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elijah, 5+ pts
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Elijah, 8+ pts
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elijah, 8+ pts
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Dalton, 1+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dalton, 1+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
20.2%
Polymarket 20.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 3-6%
Last price
20.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elijah, 11+ pts
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elijah, 11+ pts
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 3-6%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 3-6%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 0-3%
13.1%
Polymarket 13.1%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 14.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $685 (6.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 0-3%
Last price
13.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
11.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrat 6%+
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat 6%+
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$991
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Republican 12-15%
11.4%
Polymarket 11.4%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 13.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $735 (7.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 12-15%
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.6¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$735 (7.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elijah, 17+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elijah, 17+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Dalton, 4+ pts
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dalton, 4+ pts
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat 0-3%
6.9%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 13.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $746 (7.46x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-3%
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$746 (7.46x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elijah, 14+ pts
6.6%
Kalshi 6.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elijah, 14+ pts
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 6-9%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 6-9%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$366
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 9-12%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 9-12%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Polymarket
Dalton, 7+ pts
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dalton, 7+ pts
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-18%
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-18%
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 18%+
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 18%+
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Elijah, 1+ pts
  • Elijah, 2+ pts
  • Elijah, 5+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Elijah, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 7th District margin of victory". Elijah, 1+ pts leads at 68%. Next is Elijah, 2+ pts at 58%. $21K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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