The Prediction Markets

Florida's 8th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Haridopolos, 1+ pts 90.8%

Next is Haridopolos, 3+ pts at 86.7%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Haridopolos, 1+ pts
90.8%
Kalshi 90.8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 95.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 1+ pts
Last price
90.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.5¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Haridopolos, 3+ pts
86.7%
Kalshi 86.7%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 92.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 3+ pts
Last price
86.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92.3¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Haridopolos, 6+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 6+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Haridopolos, 9+ pts
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 9+ pts
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Haridopolos, 12+ pts
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 12+ pts
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 5-10%
34%
Polymarket 34%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 5-10%
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Haridopolos, 15+ pts
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 15+ pts
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$377
Trade this on Kalshi
Haridopolos, 18+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 18+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$339
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 10-15%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 10-15%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 0-5%
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 0-5%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Haridopolos, 21+ pts
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 21+ pts
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Republican 15-20%
12.1%
Polymarket 12.1%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 21.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $465 (4.65x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 15-20%
Last price
12.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21.5¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$465 (4.65x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 20-25%
10.6%
Polymarket 10.6%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 20.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $498 (4.98x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 20-25%
Last price
10.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$498 (4.98x)
Volume
$932
Trade this on Polymarket
Haridopolos, 24+ pts
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 24+ pts
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Haridopolos, 30+ pts
6.8%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 30+ pts
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Democrat Wins
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrat Wins
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 25-30%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 25-30%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Republican 30%+
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republican 30%+
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Polymarket
Haridopolos, 27+ pts
4.2%
Kalshi 4.2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haridopolos, 27+ pts
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Haridopolos, 1+ pts
  • Haridopolos, 3+ pts
  • Haridopolos, 6+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Haridopolos, 1+ pts for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Florida's 8th District margin of victory". Haridopolos, 1+ pts leads at 90.8%. Next is Haridopolos, 3+ pts at 86.7%. $21K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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