The Prediction Markets

Flyweight Title on Dec 31, 2027?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Manel Kape 60%

Next is Tatsuro Taira at 48.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Manel Kape
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Manel Kape
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tatsuro Taira
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tatsuro Taira
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joshua Van
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joshua Van
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Kalshi
Aaron Pico
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aaron Pico
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Alexandre Pantoja
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandre Pantoja
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Asu Almabayev
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Asu Almabayev
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon Moreno
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Moreno
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Brandon Royval
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brandon Royval
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Vallejos
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Vallejos
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Muhammad Mokaev
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Muhammad Mokaev
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Amir Albazi
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amir Albazi
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Kyoji Horiguchi
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kyoji Horiguchi
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Kai Kara-France
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kai Kara-France
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: MMA Fighting, Fox Sports, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Manel Kape
  • Tatsuro Taira
  • Joshua Van

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Flyweight Title on Dec 31, 2027?". Manel Kape leads at 60%. Next is Tatsuro Taira at 48.5%. $1K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets