The Prediction Markets

Forever: First Week Album Equivalent Units

Closes
Nov 8, 2026, in 16 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

25k+ 89%

Next is 50k+ at 76.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
25k+
89%
Polymarket 89%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
25k+
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
50k+
76.5%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
50k+
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
200k+
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
200k+
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 2K
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2K
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
100k+
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
100k+
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 5K
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5K
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 7K
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 7K
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$855
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 10K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 10K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 12K
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 12K
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$177
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 15K
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15K
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: hitsdailydouble.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Luminate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 25k+
  • 50k+
  • 200k+

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 25k+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Forever: First Week Album Equivalent Units". 25k+ leads at 89%. Next is 50k+ at 76.5%. $16K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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