The Prediction Markets

Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch

Starts in 1 h 14 minKickoff
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
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What the markets expect

Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5 76%

Next is Darwin Blanch at 57%. The venues differ most on Rottgering (Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 45%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
76%
Polymarket 76%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Darwin Blanch
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Darwin Blanch
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Kalshi
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Match O/U 21.5
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Game Spread +/-1.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Match O/U 22.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 Winner
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Rottgering
44.4%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 h agoKalshi 45%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mees Rottgering
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 1 h old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 44¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 44¢.

Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 2 Winner
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Match O/U 23.5
Last price
43%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
39.5%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5
  • Darwin Blanch
  • Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch". Fort Worth: Mees Rottgering vs Darwin Blanch Set 1 O/U 8.5 leads at 76%. Next is Darwin Blanch at 57%. $3K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market refers to the tennis match between Mees Rottgering and Darwin Blanch in the Fort Worth, originally scheduled for October 23, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mees Rottgering' if Mees Rottgering advances against Darwin Blanch. This market will resolve to 'Darwin Blanch' if Darwin Blanch advances against Mees Rottgering. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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