The Prediction Markets

French Presidential Election First Round Winner

Starts in 177 daysKickoff
Traded
$142K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Marine Le Pen 78%

Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 5%. The venues differ most on Marine Le Pen (Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 88%), a 4.5-point gap.

Marine Le Pen 78%Jean-Luc Mélenchon 5%First-round winner 3.5%David Lisnard 2.6%douard Philippe 2.5%11 others 8.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 8 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marine Le PenArb
78%
Polymarket 83.5%(79.1% fair)polled, 21s agoKalshi 88%(79.6% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
83.5%
Fair, margin removed
79.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
88%
Fair, margin removed
79.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 84¢ and selling on Kalshi at 86¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
5%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 21s agoKalshi 4%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
5.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

First-round winner
3.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, 8 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
First-round winner
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 8 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
David Lisnard
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 21s agoKalshi 3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

douard Philippe
2.5%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Raphaël Glucksmann
1.2%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Jordan Bardella
0.9%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.9¢.

Xavier Bertrand
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
François Ruffin
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Bruno Retailleau
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Show 8 more outcomes
Dominique de Villepin
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Gabriel Attal
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$694
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Marine Tondelier
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$715
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

ric Zemmour
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$799
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

François Hollande
0.6%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$734
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Sébastien Lecornu
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Christine Lagarde
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$699
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Knafo
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$719
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Marine Le Pen on Polymarket at 84¢, sell on Kalshi at 86¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel, French Ministry of the Interior
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 18, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marine Le Pen
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • First-round winner

Live prices for Marine Le Pen

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election First Round Winner". Marine Le Pen leads at 78%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 5%. $142K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2027.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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