The Prediction Markets

French presidential election: who will advance?

Starts in 190 daysKickoff
Traded
$416K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Marine Le Pen 89.4%

Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 38.9%. The venues differ most on Gabriel Attal (Polymarket 5%, Kalshi 16%), a 11-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Marine Le Pen
89.4%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 89%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$720
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 88¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 90¢.

Jean-Luc MélenchonArb
38.9%
Polymarket 39.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 37%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
39.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 37¢ and selling on Polymarket at 38¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

douard PhilippeArb
38.4%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 41%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$494
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 39¢ and selling on Kalshi at 41¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

David Lisnard
14.4%
Polymarket 14.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
14.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
14.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$181K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raphaël GlucksmannArb
10.5%
Polymarket 11.3%polled, 25s agoKalshi 8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
11.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9.6¢ nets 160 bps before fees.

Gabriel AttalArb
7.8%
Polymarket 5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 16%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 420 bps before fees.

Bruno Retailleau
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 25s agoKalshi 6%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
5.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Dominique de Villepin
5.9%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Jordan BardellaArb
5.5%
Polymarket 6%polled, 25s agoKalshi 4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$243
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

François Hollande
5.4%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 25s agoKalshi 7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Show 26 more outcomes
Sarah Knafo
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sébastien Lecornu
4.6%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

ric Zemmour
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$742
Trade this on Polymarket
Manuel Bompard
4.4%
Polymarket 4.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Bompard
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Juan Branco
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Branco
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yaël Braun-Pivet
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yaël Braun-Pivet
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Ruffin
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Gérald Darmanin
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gérald Darmanin
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Asselineau
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Asselineau
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bernard Cazeneuve
4%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 25s agoKalshi 5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernard Cazeneuve
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

lisabeth Borne
3.9%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 25s agoKalshi 5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
lisabeth Borne
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
lisabeth Borne
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Fabien Roussel
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fabien Roussel
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
François Bayrou
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Bayrou
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ségolène Royal
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ségolène Royal
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carole Delga
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carole Delga
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Laurent Wauquiez
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laurent Wauquiez
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$921
Trade this on Polymarket
Clémentine Autain
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémentine Autain
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Clémence Guetté
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clémence Guetté
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Tondelier
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mathilde Panot
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mathilde Panot
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Olivier Faure
1.8%
Polymarket 1%polled, 25s agoKalshi 4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Olivier Faure
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.7¢.

Xavier Bertrand
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xavier Bertrand
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michel Barnier
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michel Barnier
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jean Castex
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean Castex
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Valérie Pécresse
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valérie Pécresse
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Gabriel Attal on Polymarket at 5.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 10¢ (420 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 17, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: interieur.gouv.fr
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Conseil constitutionnel
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 19, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Apr 17, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Marine Le Pen
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • douard Philippe

Live prices for Marine Le Pen

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "French presidential election: who will advance?". Marine Le Pen leads at 89.4%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 38.9%. $416K has traded across 36 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 17, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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