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What the markets expect
Dominique de Villepin 68%
Next is François Hollande at 25.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Dominique de Villepin68%68%47¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 58s ago89¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Dominique de Villepin68%Polymarket 68%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Dominique de Villepin
68%
68%
47¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
89¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Dominique de Villepin
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Dominique de Villepin
- Last price
- 68%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 47¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $2K
François Hollande25.5%25.5%23¢ bid, 28¢ askpolled, 58s ago28¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $357 (3.57x)François Hollande25.5%Polymarket 25.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
François Hollande
25.5%
25.5%
23¢ bid, 28¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
28¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $357 (3.57x)
François Hollande
25.5%
Polymarket 25.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- François Hollande
- Last price
- 25.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $357 (3.57x)
- Volume
- $3K
Bernard Cazeneuve11%11%10¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 58s ago12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Bernard Cazeneuve11%Polymarket 11%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Bernard Cazeneuve
11%
11%
10¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Bernard Cazeneuve
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Bernard Cazeneuve
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $3K
Yaël Braun-Pivet8.3%8.3%7.7¢ bid, 8.9¢ askpolled, 58s ago8.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)Yaël Braun-Pivet8.3%Polymarket 8.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Yaël Braun-Pivet
8.3%
8.3%
7.7¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
8.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Yaël Braun-Pivet
8.3%
Polymarket 8.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yaël Braun-Pivet
- Last price
- 8.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,124 (11.2x)
- Volume
- $1K
lisabeth Borne6.5%6.5%5.8¢ bid, 7.1¢ askpolled, 58s ago7.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)lisabeth Borne6.5%Polymarket 6.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
lisabeth Borne
6.5%
6.5%
5.8¢ bid, 7.1¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
7.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
lisabeth Borne
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- lisabeth Borne
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,408 (14.1x)
- Volume
- $4K
Michel Barnier6%6%5¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 58s ago7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Michel Barnier6%Polymarket 6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Michel Barnier
6%
6%
5¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Michel Barnier
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michel Barnier
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Manuel Bompard5.5%5.5%5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 58s ago6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Manuel Bompard5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Manuel Bompard
5.5%
5.5%
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Manuel Bompard
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Manuel Bompard
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $4K
Gérald Darmanin5.5%5.5%5.2¢ bid, 5.7¢ askpolled, 58s ago5.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)Gérald Darmanin5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Gérald Darmanin
5.5%
5.5%
5.2¢ bid, 5.7¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
5.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Gérald Darmanin
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gérald Darmanin
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,754 (17.5x)
- Volume
- $2K
Valérie Pécresse3.6%3.6%2.8¢ bid, 4.3¢ askpolled, 58s ago4.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)Valérie Pécresse3.6%Polymarket 3.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Valérie Pécresse
3.6%
3.6%
2.8¢ bid, 4.3¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Valérie Pécresse
3.6%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Valérie Pécresse
- Last price
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,326 (23.3x)
- Volume
- $2K
François Bayrou3.4%3.4%2.7¢ bid, 4.1¢ askpolled, 58s ago4.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)François Bayrou3.4%Polymarket 3.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
François Bayrou
3.4%
3.4%
2.7¢ bid, 4.1¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
4.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
François Bayrou
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- François Bayrou
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,439 (24.4x)
- Volume
- $3K
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
Sébastien Lecornu3.3%3.3%2.7¢ bid, 3.9¢ askpolled, 58s ago3.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)Sébastien Lecornu3.3%Polymarket 3.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Sébastien Lecornu
3.3%
3.3%
2.7¢ bid, 3.9¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
3.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Sébastien Lecornu
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Sébastien Lecornu
- Last price
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,564 (25.6x)
- Volume
- $8K
Mathilde Panot2.7%2.7%2.2¢ bid, 3.2¢ askpolled, 58s ago3.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)Mathilde Panot2.7%Polymarket 2.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Mathilde Panot
2.7%
2.7%
2.2¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
3.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Mathilde Panot
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mathilde Panot
- Last price
- 2.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,125 (31.3x)
- Volume
- $20K
Jean Castex2.6%2.6%2.3¢ bid, 2.8¢ askpolled, 58s ago2.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)Jean Castex2.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Jean Castex
2.6%
2.6%
2.3¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
2.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Jean Castex
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jean Castex
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
- Volume
- $2K
Jordan Bardella2.5%2.5%1.4¢ bid, 3.5¢ askpolled, 58s ago3.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)Jordan Bardella2.5%Polymarket 2.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Jordan Bardella
2.5%
2.5%
1.4¢ bid, 3.5¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
3.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Jordan Bardella
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jordan Bardella
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,857 (28.6x)
- Volume
- $11K
Carole Delga2.3%2.3%1¢ bid, 3.6¢ askpolled, 58s ago3.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)Carole Delga2.3%Polymarket 2.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Carole Delga
2.3%
2.3%
1¢ bid, 3.6¢ ask
polled, 58s ago
3.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Carole Delga
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Carole Delga
- Last price
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,778 (27.8x)
- Volume
- $2K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Dominique de Villepin
- François Hollande
- Bernard Cazeneuve
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?". Dominique de Villepin leads at 68%. Next is François Hollande at 25.5%. $116K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 18, 2027.
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual publicly announces that they are running for President in the 2027 French presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual of their candidacy will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually formally file their candidacy, or whether they actually appear on the ballot. Statements that merely indicate the listed individual is considering a run, is expected to run, or is being discussed as a possible candidate will not be sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the listed individual; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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