The Prediction Markets

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 9 days
Traded
$3.0M
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

December 31, 2027 45.9%

Next is June 30, 2027 at 32%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

December 31, 2027 45.9%June 30, 2027 32%March 31, 2027 11%December 31, 2026 6.4%November 30, 2026 3.7%October 31, 2026 1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
December 31, 2027
45.9%
Polymarket 39.5%(45.9% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
39.5%
Fair, margin removed
45.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
June 30, 2027
32%
Polymarket 27.5%(32% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
27.5%
Fair, margin removed
32%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
March 31, 2027
11%
Polymarket 9.5%(11% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
March 31, 2027
Last price
9.5%
Fair, margin removed
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
December 31, 2026
6.4%
Polymarket 5.5%(6.4% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
November 30, 2026
3.7%
Polymarket 3.2%(3.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30, 2026
Last price
3.2%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
October 31, 2026
1%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31, 2026
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$161K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • December 31, 2027
  • June 30, 2027
  • March 31, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?". December 31, 2027 leads at 45.9%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 32%. $3.0M has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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