The Prediction Markets

Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any European Nation

Closed
Jul 26, 2026
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jul 26, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Winning the Final
54.5%
Kalshi 79%(54.5% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Winning the Final
Last price
79%
Fair, margin removed
54.5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Losing the Final
24.1%
Kalshi 35%(24.1% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Losing the Final
Last price
35%
Fair, margin removed
24.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Semifinals
17.2%
Kalshi 25%(17.2% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Semifinals
Last price
25%
Fair, margin removed
17.2%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Round of 32
2.1%
Kalshi 3%(2.1% fair)polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Round of 32
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
2.1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Group Stage
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Group Stage
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Kalshi
Quarterfinals
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quarterfinals
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$739
Trade this on Kalshi
Round of 16
0.7%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3027 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Round of 16
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$638
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fox Sports, ESPN, FIFA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Winning the Final
  • Losing the Final
  • Semifinals

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Furthest Stage Advanced to by Any European Nation". Winning the Final last traded at 54.5%. Next is Losing the Final at 24.1%. $10K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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