The Prediction Markets

Fuse Energy FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

2B 45%

Next is 4B at 42%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
2B
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
2B
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$197
Trade this on Polymarket
4B
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, just nowBest Yes 78¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
Contract
4B
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Polymarket
800M
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
800M
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$544
Trade this on Polymarket
3B
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
3B
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$319
Trade this on Polymarket
5B
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
5B
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$462
Trade this on Polymarket
1B
23.5%
Polymarket 23.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 39¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
1B
Last price
23.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$375
Trade this on Polymarket
6B
21%
Polymarket 21%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
6B
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$741
Trade this on Polymarket
7B
20%
Polymarket 20%polled, just nowBest Yes 37.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $266 (2.66x)
Polymarket
Contract
7B
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37.6¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$266 (2.66x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Polymarket
8B
10.8%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
8B
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Polymarket
10B
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
10B
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$557
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: x.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2B
  • 4B
  • 800M

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Fuse Energy FDV above ___ one day after launch?". 2B leads at 45%. Next is 4B at 42%. $5K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Fuse's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Fuse will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Fuse (https://x.com/fuseenergy) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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