The Prediction Markets

Game Awards: Best Narrative

Ends in about 69 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$7K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Grand Theft Auto VI 52.3%

Next is 007 First Light at 10.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Grand Theft Auto VI 52.3%007 First Light 10.8%Control Resonant 6.6%Silent Hill: Townfall 6.6%The Blood of Dawnwalker 5.8%5 others 17.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Grand Theft Auto VI
52.3%
Kalshi 63%(52.3% fair)polled, 28s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grand Theft Auto VI
Last price
63%
Fair, margin removed
52.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
007 First Light
10.8%
Kalshi 13%(10.8% fair)polled, 28s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
007 First Light
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
10.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Control Resonant
6.6%
Kalshi 8%(6.6% fair)polled, 28s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Control Resonant
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Kalshi
Silent Hill: Townfall
6.6%
Kalshi 8%(6.6% fair)polled, 28s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Silent Hill: Townfall
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Kalshi
The Blood of Dawnwalker
5.8%
Kalshi 7%(5.8% fair)polled, 28s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Blood of Dawnwalker
Last price
7%
Fair, margin removed
5.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$267
Trade this on Kalshi
Pragmata
5%
Kalshi 6%(5% fair)polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pragmata
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$232
Trade this on Kalshi
Resident Evil Requiem
5%
Kalshi 6%(5% fair)polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Resident Evil Requiem
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Schrödinger's Call
4.1%
Kalshi 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 28s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schrödinger's Call
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter
2.1%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trails in the Sky 2nd Chapter
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Game Awards

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Grand Theft Auto VI
  • 007 First Light
  • Control Resonant

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Game Awards: Best Narrative". Grand Theft Auto VI leads at 52.3%. Next is 007 First Light at 10.8%. $7K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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