The Prediction Markets

Gas prices on October 23?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 4 hours
Traded
$1K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

4.2900+ 72%

Next is 4.2800-4.2899 at 20.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

4.2900+ 72%4.2800-4.2899 20.4%4.2700-4.2799 3.5%4.2600-4.2699 2.5%4.2500-4.2599 1.1%4.2500 0.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
4.2900+
72%
Polymarket 98.8%(72.1% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 99.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2900+
Last price
98.8%
Fair, margin removed
72.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
97.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2800-4.2899
20.4%
Polymarket 28%(20.4% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2800-4.2899
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
20.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2700-4.2799
3.5%
Polymarket 4.8%(3.5% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2700-4.2799
Last price
4.8%
Fair, margin removed
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$229
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2600-4.2699
2.5%
Polymarket 3.4%(2.5% fair)polled, 19s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2600-4.2699
Last price
3.4%
Fair, margin removed
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2500-4.2599
1.1%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2500-4.2599
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$331
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2500
0.5%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2500
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: gasprices.aaa.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 4.2900+
  • 4.2800-4.2899
  • 4.2700-4.2799

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Gas prices on October 23?". 4.2900+ leads at 72%. Next is 4.2800-4.2899 at 20.4%. $1K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA for October 23, 2026. This market resolves based on the US national average price of regular gasoline published by AAA at https://gasprices.aaa.com/ in the "National Average Gas Prices" table under the "Regular" column and the "Current Avg." row. Each date's price is the price displayed at 10:00 AM ET on that date, provided that at that time the "Price as of" date shown on the webpage is that date and the "Yesterday Avg." row in the same column shows the previous date's price. If either condition is not met at 10:00 AM ET, the price will be observed at the first time on that date at which both are met; if both are not met by 11:59 PM ET on that date, the price displayed in the table at that time will be used. If AAA does not display the US national average price of regular gasoline in the table at the time of observation, the price displayed elsewhere on the webpage will be used. If AAA displays no US national average price of regular gasoline on the specified webpage at any time on the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent previously-published AAA US national average price of regular gasoline. The resolution source for this market will be the American Automobile Association (AAA) (https://gasprices.aaa.com/). Note: AAA currently publishes gas prices to four decimal places (e.g., $4.3718). The price will be used as published, without rounding.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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