The Prediction Markets

GDP growth in 2026?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$514K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

2.1% to 2.5% 58.2%

Next is 2.0–2.5% at 55%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
2.1% to 2.5%
58.2%
Kalshi 58.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.1% to 2.5%
Last price
58.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.0–2.5%
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.0–2.5%
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
2.5%
43.2%
Polymarket 43.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 48.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.5%
Last price
43.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48.2¢
Sell Yes
38.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$207 (2.07x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6% to 2.0%
16.1%
Kalshi 16.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.6% to 2.0%
Last price
16.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6% to 3.0%
14.6%
Kalshi 14.6%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 14.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $685 (6.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.6% to 3.0%
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.1% to 1.5%
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.1% to 1.5%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.5–2.0%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.5–2.0%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1% to 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.1% to 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0% or Below
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.0% or Below
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1% to 4.5%
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.1% to 4.5%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
0.6% to 1.0%
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.6% to 1.0%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6% to 5.0%
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.6% to 5.0%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.1% or Above
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
6.1% or Above
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5–1.0%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5–1.0%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.0–1.5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0–1.5%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.1% to 3.5%
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.1% to 3.5%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.6% to 4.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.6% to 4.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1% to 5.5%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% to 5.5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.6% to 6.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 41s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.6% to 6.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: bea.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 2.1% to 2.5%
  • 2.0–2.5%
  • 2.5%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 2.1% to 2.5% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "GDP growth in 2026?". 2.1% to 2.5% leads at 58.2%. Next is 2.0–2.5% at 55%. $514K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 28, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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