The Prediction Markets

Georgia's 5th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Williams, 59+ pts 95.5%

Next is Williams, 62+ pts at 94.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Williams, 59+ pts
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 99.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 59+ pts
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
91.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 62+ pts
94.3%
Kalshi 94.3%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 62+ pts
Last price
94.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 65+ pts
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 96.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 65+ pts
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.7¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 68+ pts
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 68+ pts
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 71+ pts
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 71+ pts
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$591
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 74+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 74+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 77+ pts
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 77+ pts
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 80+ pts
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 80+ pts
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Williams, 83+ pts
9.2%
Kalshi 9.2%polled, 60s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Williams, 83+ pts
Last price
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Williams, 59+ pts
  • Williams, 62+ pts
  • Williams, 65+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Georgia's 5th District margin of victory". Williams, 59+ pts leads at 95.5%. Next is Williams, 62+ pts at 94.3%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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