The Prediction Markets

Georgia's 6th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

McBath, 41+ pts 93.1%

Next is McBath, 44+ pts at 91.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
McBath, 41+ pts
93.1%
Kalshi 93.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
McBath, 41+ pts
Last price
93.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
93.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$583
Trade this on Kalshi
McBath, 44+ pts
91.2%
Kalshi 91.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 99.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
McBath, 44+ pts
Last price
91.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
91.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
McBath, 47+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 99.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
McBath, 47+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.7¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Kalshi
McBath, 50+ pts
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 93.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
McBath, 50+ pts
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93.6¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$230
Trade this on Kalshi
McBath, 53+ pts
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, just nowBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
McBath, 53+ pts
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
McBath, 56+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, just nowBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
McBath, 56+ pts
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
McBath, 59+ pts
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
McBath, 59+ pts
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$325
Trade this on Kalshi
McBath, 62+ pts
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, just nowBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
McBath, 62+ pts
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
McBath, 65+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
McBath, 65+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • McBath, 41+ pts
  • McBath, 44+ pts
  • McBath, 47+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Georgia's 6th District margin of victory". McBath, 41+ pts leads at 93.1%. Next is McBath, 44+ pts at 91.2%. $2K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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