The Prediction Markets

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Closes
Oct 30, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$510K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 0.0% 97.5%

Next is Above 0.5% at 97%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 0.0%
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.0%
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 0.5%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 2 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 0.5%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.0%
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.0%
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.9 trillion
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.9 trillion
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 1.5%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 1.5%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.0%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.0%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 2.5%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 2.5%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.0%
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.0%
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.7 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.7 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 3.5%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.5%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 33 more outcomes
Above 4.0%
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.0%
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.5%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.5%
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$490
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.0%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.0%
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.1 trillion
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.1 trillion
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 5.5%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 5.5%
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$130
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.3 trillion
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.3 trillion
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Kalshi
2.1% to 2.5%
50.1%
Kalshi 50.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.1% to 2.5%
Last price
50.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
50.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.0-1.2%
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0-1.2%
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 6.0%
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 6.0%
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$913
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.5 trillion
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.5 trillion
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Kalshi
0.7-0.9%
28.5%
Polymarket 28.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.7-0.9%
Last price
28.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.6% to 2.0%
16.1%
Kalshi 16.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 20.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $478 (4.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.6% to 2.0%
Last price
16.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20.9¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$478 (4.78x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.7 trillion
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.7 trillion
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$627
Trade this on Kalshi
2.6% to 3.0%
14.5%
Kalshi 14.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Kalshi
Contract
2.6% to 3.0%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.4-0.6%
13.1%
Polymarket 13.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 15.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $629 (6.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4-0.6%
Last price
13.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
15.9¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$629 (6.29x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.3%+
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.3%+
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $5.9 trillion
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.9 trillion
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
3.1% to 3.5%
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.1% to 3.5%
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
1.1% to 1.5%
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
1.1% to 1.5%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.3 trillion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.3 trillion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Kalshi
0.1-0.3%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.1-0.3%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1% to 0.5%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.1% to 0.5%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.1 trillion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.1 trillion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.5 trillion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.5 trillion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0% or Below
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.0% or Below
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.1% to 4.5%
0.9%
Kalshi 0.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.1% to 4.5%
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6% to 1.0%
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
0.6% to 1.0%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
4.6% to 5.0%
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
4.6% to 5.0%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
6.1% or Above
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
6.1% or Above
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.6% to 4.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
3.6% to 4.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.1% to 5.5%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.1% to 5.5%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
5.6% to 6.0%
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kalshi
Contract
5.6% to 6.0%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: destatis.de
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Trading Economics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 0.0%
  • Above 0.5%
  • Above 1.0%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 0.0% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?". Above 0.0% leads at 97.5%. Next is Above 0.5% at 97%. $510K has traded across 43 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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