The Prediction Markets

Germany Nominal GDP in 2026

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$80K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $4.9 trillion 96%

Next is Above $4.7 trillion at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above $4.9 trillion
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.9 trillion
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.7 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.7 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.1 trillion
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.1 trillion
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $5.3 trillion
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.3 trillion
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Kalshi
1.0-1.2%
46.5%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.0-1.2%
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $5.5 trillion
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.5 trillion
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$521
Trade this on Kalshi
0.7-0.9%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.7-0.9%
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $5.7 trillion
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.7 trillion
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$627
Trade this on Kalshi
0.4-0.6%
12.3%
Polymarket 12.3%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 14.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $694 (6.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4-0.6%
Last price
12.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14.4¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$694 (6.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.3%+
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.3%+
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Above $5.9 trillion
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $5.9 trillion
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.3 trillion
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.3 trillion
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$183
Trade this on Kalshi
0.1-0.3%
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.1-0.3%
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $6.1 trillion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.1 trillion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$282
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $6.5 trillion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $6.5 trillion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.0%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 25s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: destatis.de
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $4.9 trillion
  • Above $4.7 trillion
  • Above $5.1 trillion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above $4.9 trillion for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Germany Nominal GDP in 2026". Above $4.9 trillion leads at 96%. Next is Above $4.7 trillion at 95%. $80K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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