The Prediction Markets

Global remittances sent in 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above $500 billion 81%

Next is Above $550 billion at 73%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $500 billion
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $500 billion
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $550 billion
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $550 billion
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $600 billion
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $600 billion
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $650 billion
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $650 billion
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $700 billion
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $700 billion
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $750 billion
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $750 billion
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $800 billion
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $800 billion
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: World Bank

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $500 billion
  • Above $550 billion
  • Above $600 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Global remittances sent in 2026". Above $500 billion leads at 81%. Next is Above $550 billion at 73%. $4K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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