The Prediction Markets

Gold Glove: NL Pitcher

Closes
Dec 8, 2026, in 46 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Michael McGreevy 32%

Next is Nolan McLean at 29.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Michael McGreevy 32%Nolan McLean 29.3%Zack Wheeler 3.4%Colin Rea 2.8%Eduardo Rodriguez 2.8%11 others 29.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Michael McGreevy
32%
Kalshi 47%(32% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael McGreevy
Last price
47%
Fair, margin removed
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nolan McLean
29.3%
Kalshi 43%(29.3% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nolan McLean
Last price
43%
Fair, margin removed
29.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Kalshi
Zack Wheeler
3.4%
Kalshi 5%(3.4% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zack Wheeler
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
3.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$680
Trade this on Kalshi
Colin Rea
2.8%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colin Rea
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Eduardo Rodriguez
2.8%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eduardo Rodriguez
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Foster Griffin
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Foster Griffin
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin Wrobleski
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Wrobleski
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Logan Webb
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Logan Webb
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Martín Pérez
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martín Pérez
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Merrill Kelly
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Merrill Kelly
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Michael King
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael King
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Soroka
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Soroka
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Randy Vásquez
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Randy Vásquez
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Feltner
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Feltner
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tie/Co-Winners
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tie/Co-Winners
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Zack Littell
2.7%
Kalshi 4%(2.7% fair)polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zack Littell
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Michael McGreevy
  • Nolan McLean
  • Zack Wheeler

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Gold Glove: NL Pitcher". Michael McGreevy leads at 32%. Next is Nolan McLean at 29.3%. $3K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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