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What the markets expect
4,300 or above 27%
Next is 4,600 or above at 19%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
4,300 or above27%27%22¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, just now27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)4,300 or above27%Kalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
4,300 or above
27%
27%
22¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, just now
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
4,300 or above
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,300 or above
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 22¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $67K
4,600 or above19%19%9¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, just now19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)4,600 or above19%Kalshi 19%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
4,600 or above
19%
19%
9¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, just now
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
4,600 or above
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,600 or above
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $27K
4,500 or above17%17%9¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, just now26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)4,500 or above17%Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
4,500 or above
17%
17%
9¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, just now
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
4,500 or above
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,500 or above
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $29K
4,400 or above15%15%11¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, just now16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)4,400 or above15%Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
4,400 or above
15%
15%
11¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, just now
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
4,400 or above
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,400 or above
- Last price
- 15%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $60K
4,700 or above10%10%9¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, just now10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)4,700 or above10%Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
4,700 or above
10%
10%
9¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, just now
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
4,700 or above
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, just nowBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,700 or above
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $17K
4,800 or above8%8%8¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)4,800 or above8%Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
4,800 or above
8%
8%
8¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
4,800 or above
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,800 or above
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $26K
5,000 or above6%6%5¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)5,000 or above6%Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5,000 or above
6%
6%
5¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5,000 or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,000 or above
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $19K
5,100 or above6%6%2¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just now9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)5,100 or above6%Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
5,100 or above
6%
6%
2¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
5,100 or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,100 or above
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $11K
5,200 or above6%6%2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)5,200 or above6%Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5,200 or above
6%
6%
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5,200 or above
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,200 or above
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $9K
4,900 or above5%5%5¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)4,900 or above5%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
4,900 or above
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
4,900 or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 4,900 or above
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $23K
Show 3 more outcomesHide 3 outcomes
5,300 or above5%5%2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)5,300 or above5%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5,300 or above
5%
5%
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5,300 or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,300 or above
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $7K
5,400 or above5%5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)5,400 or above5%Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
5,400 or above
5%
5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
5,400 or above
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,400 or above
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $13K
5,500 or above4%4%3¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, just now7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)5,500 or above4%Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5,500 or above
4%
4%
3¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, just now
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
5,500 or above
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, just nowBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 5,500 or above
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $29K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pyth - Gold
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 4,300 or above
- 4,600 or above
- 4,500 or above
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Gold price at year end?". 4,300 or above leads at 27%. Next is 4,600 or above at 19%. $338K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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