The Prediction Markets

Gold price on Oct 22, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Closes
Oct 22, 2026, within the hour
Traded
$54K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above $3933 99.5%

Next is Above $3943 at 99.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $3933
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3933
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3943
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3943
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3953
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3953
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3963
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3963
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3973
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3973
Last price
99.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3923
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3923
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99¢
Volume
$468
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3983
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3983
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3993
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 4 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3993
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4003
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4003
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
96¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4013
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4013
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$979
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 30 more outcomes
Above $4023
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4023
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4033
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4033
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$644
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4043
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4043
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4053
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4053
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4063
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4063
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4073
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4073
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4083
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4083
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4093
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4093
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4103
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4103
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4113
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4113
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4123
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4123
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4133
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4133
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4143
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4143
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4153
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4153
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4163
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4163
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4173
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4173
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$313
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4183
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4183
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4193
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4193
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4203
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4203
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4213
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4213
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4223
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4223
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4233
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4233
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4243
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4243
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4253
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4253
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4263
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4263
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4273
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4273
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4283
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4283
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4293
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4293
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4303
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4303
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4313
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4313
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pyth - Gold

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $3933
  • Above $3943
  • Above $3953

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Gold price on Oct 22, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?". Above $3933 leads at 99.5%. Next is Above $3943 at 99.5%. $54K has traded across 40 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 22, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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