The Prediction Markets

Gold price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

Closes
Oct 26, 2026, in 3 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $3874 98%

Next is Above $3884 at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $3874
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3874
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3884
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3884
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3894
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3894
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3904
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3904
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3934
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3934
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3914
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3914
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3924
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3924
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3944
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3944
Last price
92%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3834
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3834
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
80¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3954
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3954
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 30 more outcomes
Above $3844
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3844
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
79¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3854
89.5%
Kalshi 89.5%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3854
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
79¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3864
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3864
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
78¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3964
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3964
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3824
82.5%
Kalshi 82.5%polled, 38s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3824
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
65¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3974
82.5%
Kalshi 82.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3974
Last price
82.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3984
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3984
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$0
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3994
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3994
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$440
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4004
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4004
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$356
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4014
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4014
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4024
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4024
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4034
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4034
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4044
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4044
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4054
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4054
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4064
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4064
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4074
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4074
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4084
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4084
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4204
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4204
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4214
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4214
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4094
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4094
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4104
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4104
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4114
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4114
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4124
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4124
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4184
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4184
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4194
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4194
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4134
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4134
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4144
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4144
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4154
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4154
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4164
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4164
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4174
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4174
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Pyth - Gold

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $3874
  • Above $3884
  • Above $3894

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Gold price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?". Above $3874 leads at 98%. Next is Above $3884 at 97%. $1K has traded across 40 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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