The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actor in a Limited Series

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$161K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Matt Damon 94.2%

Next is Oscar Isaac at 89%. The venues differ most on Javier Bardem (Polymarket 5.1%, Kalshi 80%), a 75-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Matt Damon
94.2%
Polymarket 94.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 95.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
94.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.8¢
Sell Yes
92.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Oscar Isaac
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oscar Isaac
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
John Malkovich
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Christopher Abbott
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Abbott
Last price
86%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Scott
85%
Polymarket 85%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Cruise
60.5%
Polymarket 60.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Pattinson
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Turturro
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ryan Gosling
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Javier BardemArb
42.5%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 31s agoKalshi 80%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$499
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Javier Bardem
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 8.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 70¢ nets 6190 bps before fees.

Show 18 more outcomes
Anthony Ippolito
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jamie Bell
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jamie Bell
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Patrick Wilson
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Patrick Wilson
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sebastian Stan
18.5%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaafar Jackson
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pedro Pascal
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 17.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $585 (5.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17.1¢
Sell Yes
13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$585 (5.85x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Bernthal
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Bernthal
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin Freeman
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martin Freeman
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Cooper Jr.
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Cooper Jr.
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Timothée Chalamet
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sam Rockwell
7.6%
Polymarket 7.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,176 (11.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Rockwell
Last price
7.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.5¢
Sell Yes
6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,176 (11.8x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh O'Connor
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh O'Connor
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Polymarket
Jason Bateman
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Bateman
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Driver
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adam Driver
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brad Pitt
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Aramayo
2.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jeremy Strong
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 31s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Strong
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Javier Bardem on Polymarket at 8.1¢, sell on Kalshi at 70¢ (6190 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 21, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 8, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matt Damon
  • Oscar Isaac
  • John Malkovich

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Matt Damon for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actor in a Limited Series". Matt Damon leads at 94.2%. Next is Oscar Isaac at 89%. $161K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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