The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Matt Damon 81%

Next is Andrew Scott at 80%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Matt Damon
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Scott
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Scott
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$640
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Pattinson
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sebastian Stan
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sebastian Stan
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedro Pascal
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$412
Trade this on Kalshi
John Turturro
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Turturro
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaafar Jackson
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Gosling
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$637
Trade this on Kalshi
Timothée Chalamet
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Guitarricadelafuente
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guitarricadelafuente
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$949
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Emmanuel Macchia
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmanuel Macchia
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh O’Connor
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh O’Connor
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Aramayo
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Aramayo
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Sul Kyung-gu
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sul Kyung-gu
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matt Damon
  • Andrew Scott
  • Robert Pattinson

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama". Matt Damon leads at 81%. Next is Andrew Scott at 80%. $4K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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