The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

John Malkovich 83%

Next is Tom Cruise at 79%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
John Malkovich
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Malkovich
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Cruise
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Cruise
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Seth Rogen
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Seth Rogen
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$549
Trade this on Kalshi
Jordan Firstman
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jordan Firstman
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Kalshi
Ryan Gosling
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ryan Gosling
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Pattinson
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Pattinson
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Kalshi
Brad Pitt
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brad Pitt
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dominic Sessa
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dominic Sessa
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthony Ippolito
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthony Ippolito
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harry Melling
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Melling
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi
Pedro Pascal
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pedro Pascal
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$688
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaafar Jackson
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaafar Jackson
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • John Malkovich
  • Tom Cruise
  • Seth Rogen

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy". John Malkovich leads at 83%. Next is Tom Cruise at 79%. $11K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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