The Prediction Markets

Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Closes
Dec 8, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$20K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Matthew Rhys 95%

Next is Martin Short at 84%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Matthew Rhys
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Rhys
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$553
Trade this on Kalshi
Martin Short
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Martin Short
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Carell
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Carell
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Segel
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Segel
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$320
Trade this on Kalshi
Jason Sudeikis
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jason Sudeikis
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeremy Allen White
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Allen White
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Adam Brody
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adam Brody
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Martin
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Martin
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$858
Trade this on Kalshi
Seth Rogen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Seth Rogen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Golden Globes

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Matthew Rhys
  • Martin Short
  • Steve Carell

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Golden Globe Nominations: Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy". Matthew Rhys leads at 95%. Next is Martin Short at 84%. $20K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 8, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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